Digital Sprocket

Wow, you’ve come a longs way… From your early days as a follow-on to the aeronautics research body, NASA, to Lunar pioneers, to robotic explorers, to environmental researchers. You have transformed with the needs of every generation since your inception. I can’t wait to see what you accomplish in the next fifty years. I have dreams of Moon and Mars outposts, but then again, so did Von Braun.

We’ve established that the “stick”, the Ares booster, is not the most desirable launch vehicle for the Orion capsule. But what alternatives are there to the shuttle derived solid rocket booster?

Popular alternatives are the Atlas 5 and Delta IV boosters. The DoD dumped millions of dollars into the EELV, or Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle program after the Challenger accident. The military decided they could no longer rely on the Space Shuttle for their future launch needs, especially for classified payloads. Thus the EELV program helped Boeing and Lockheed Martin develop improved medium lift launchers capable of lofting 20,000 – 25,000kg into Low Earth Orbit. The Delta or Atlas would still need to be upgraded to a “man rating”, but at least they have a known flight record with all of the accompanying engineering data.

Unfortunately, the current plans for the Orion capsule put it at 29,000kg. This is definitely over the numbers listed for the current generation of Delta and Atlas boosters. If NASA pursued the EELV rout, they’d still have to design the capsule to fit the booster, rather than selecting a booster to fit the mission needs. Either that, or they must invest in a second round of EELV development.

What other options are there? How about the “New Space” companies? A quick peek at the SpaceX yields interesting returns. Their Falcon 9 Heavy booster is advertised as able to lift 29,600kg to LEO. This is just what NASA needs. Even better, they, “anticipate the first availability of the Falcon 9 Heavy in 2010.”

Unfortunately, SpaceX lacks a proven track record. They have yet to orbit a payload with their Falcon 1, let alone the much larger and more complex Falcon 9. Their third attempt is scheduled to occur in the next few weeks, so they may be a contender, but they have no proven track record, and the Falcon 9 Heavy still needs a great deal of development work before you rely on it for your future plans.

Where am I going with all of this? There are several imperfect solutions to lofting the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. Any one of them could be used with some additional development. NASA would be much better off selecting the booster by establishing criteria, and going through a competitive bidding process. NASA really shouldn’t care how the Orion reaches orbit, as long as it does so safely, and there are several companies that could achieve that result.

NASA should, instead, focus on those things no one else is doing. The current lunar and Martian plans call for a massive heavy lift vehicle that can lift 70 – 150 tons into LEO. This requires a booster on the scale of the mighty Saturn V rocket from the Apollo era. There a re no rockets of this class operating today. Yes, NASA’s expects to fill this need with the Ares V, a Shuttle derived system based on the external tank and a pair of solid boosters.

There’s nothing wrong with this idea except that there’s no real funding for development until after the “stick” is operational. And any large project that is delayed like this faces a real risk of death through budget cuts. While the Ares I is a duplication of existing or soon to be developed commercial systems, the Ares V will provide new capabilities. Without the heavy lift capability, lunar exploration will hit a brick wall. NASA should focus on developing these new capabilities, and let industry design all lesser systems.

I’m sorry I haven’t posted for a while. Life has gotten a bit hectic, but I’m working on an interesting project. I few friends from a spaceflight forum are working with me to turn the aerospace scorecard into an interactive website. If all goes well, it will include dates, altitudes, and other critical information, and allow knowledgeable users to add more data as the startups launch more flights. I’m very excited by the possibility. It is, of course taking longer to implement than I expected, but it should be very good.

Thank you for your patience.

I finally got to hear Jim Bell speak about the Martian rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, and the wonderful images they returned from the Red Planet. Jim is a professor at Cornell University as is Steve Squires. The university has also furnished many other MER team members, a few of which attended Jim’s lecture.

Afterwards, and after getting Jim’s signature on my copy of his book, Postcards From Mars, I spoke with John, one of the other Cornell Martians. John wrote some of the software that stitches the small photos together into the breathtaking panoramic views we’ve come to expect.

According to John an important dirt side computer failed this morning and for some reason it fell to him to break out the screwdrivers and repair the thing. He’s a software engineer, and tinkering with hardware is not his favorite pastime. So he’s lying on the floor with parts strewn all over when Steve Squires pops into the room. Steve sees the state of affairs and quips, “That’s just what you want to see, mission critical hardware in pieces.” John replied, “and the scary thing is that the guy with the screwdriver is a programmer.”

It’s good to hear that the MER team is still having fun with the project. What’s really impressive is that the team is still doing anything besides researching old data. The rovers were only designed to survive three months on Mars, and they’re still going strong after thirty months.

Last night I was reading The Planets by Dava Sobel. In this wonderful book she mentions that the Earth is the only planet in the solar system with a moon of the right size and in the right location to cause a total eclipse of the sun. The Earth is unusual in only having one moon, and a big one at that. As viewed from Earth, our moon appears to be the same angular size as the sun. No other planet boasts such a relationship.

This got me thinking. As you stop off at planets further and further away from the sun, it’s angular size in the sky appears to get smaller and smaller. At some point, perhaps near Uranus, the sun is small enough that we could create an artificial eclipse. We’d accomplish it by inserting a satellite into orbit. The satellite would need a disk a mile or so in diameter to periodically block the sun from the sky.

At present there’s not a whole lot of call for artificial eclipse around other planets, but it’s an interesting thought experiment. If you’re always looking for mathematical challenges, this is a good one. There is however a very useful artificial eclipse closer to home.

SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, is suspended between the Earth and Sun near a Lagrange point. One of its main instruments blocks out the disk of the sun, and records everything else. Operating in a perpetual eclipse it can continuously observe the sun’s normally invisible corona. Unexpectedly, it also turns out to be the most efficient comet hunter, and has identified over 1000 new transients in the sun’s vicinity.

This is actually something I wrote a year and a half ago while living in Japan. Enjoy…

What science fiction story is complete without the whoosh of automatic sliding doors? Ever since the original Star Trek television series, every space ship created for television or film has installed these iconic doors wherever budgets allowed. Growing up, supermarkets often had automatic doors, but they were clumsy attempts at best. Outside the door is a two foot by six foot rubber pad, and when you step on it, the door slowly swings open. They were slow and terribly inelegant.

Today, I live in the land of whooshing automatic doors. Actually they make hardly any sound at all, but they slide open when you approach, and close behind you when you walk past. I live in a medium sized Japanese city, and almost every store is equipped with automatic doors. Perhaps it is because of the sliding shoji screens that are integral to traditional architecture here, but they are ubiquitous. Mounted on the wall above each glass door is a small rectangular prism that contains the motion sensor. When you get within two feet or so of the door, it silently glides open. Of course the system isn’t perfect. On a cold day when the shop is crowded, the door will insist on ghosting open to let in a frozen wind whenever someone gets too close, but we’ve all become accustomed to them.

The other day, I walked up to a door, and paused to let it open. It didn’t. After about five seconds of confusion, I looked again and realized it actually had a door handle I had to pull. “How quaint,” I thought. If I have this much trouble after only spending a year and a half with these doors, how much trouble must Kirk and Spock have had when they went back in time to visit the twentieth century? “Door open…DOOR, I SAID OPEN!” “Captain, you may find turning this knob to be helpful.”

Anyone remember the 1980’s? Back then I was a volunteer at the Harrisburg Museum of Scientific Discovery. Among their many hands-on exhibits was a videophone with two stations. Each station was the size of a large desk with a telephone handset, a video camera, and a grainy black and white monitor. I took one look at this and said, “this’ll never fly.” In a way, I was right. After all, do you know anyone who purchased an AT&T videophone? They unsuccessfully tried to develop a commercial model at the time.

Fast-forward twenty years. I’m living in a small Japanese apartment with my wife while the rest of my family is spread across the US. I keep in touch with them via email, and weekly video chats. All I needed to get this set up was to plug a small camera into my computer and get an AIM account. It’s so easy, even my non-technophile parents can use it. Who would of thought that it would take the Internet to make videophones practical?

Two more bits. The best part of having the video capability was watching my new niece over the first two years of her life. Now when she sees us on video or in person, she knows us by name. This is working so well, that my parents are trying to convince my younger brother to get a video camera before he leaves for Australia. My parents want the video capability to keep in touch with their grandson.

Lastly, before I left Japan, it was clear the Japanese had taken videophones to the next level. Billboards and T.V. commercials advertised cell phones with full video capability. Yes, they developed full-duplex, two-way video capable cell phones.

What breakthrough technologies have you discounted, only to see them become mainstream later?

Last night I watched Voyage to the Planets and Beyond, a fictional account of a tour of the solar system by five astronauts. While entertaining, the creators attempted to base their story on near-term engineering possibilities. I’m not going to list the scientific and technical faults of the program because it was intended to entertain, and to make viewers think seriously about the possibility of sending manned spacecraft to planets beyond the earth.

This got me thinking about the role stories like this play in establishing and supporting Government space programs. Of course, if fiction impacts space policy, then it also affects other areas of policy, but let’s just stick to one topic for now. In 1995, Howard McCurdy published a great paper on this exact topic. In “Fiction and Imagination: How They Affect Public Administration,” he argued that in the absence of hard data on a topic, works of fiction may play a strong role in shaping public policy. He went on to show how series in Colliers magazine, and the “Disneyland” TV program, and other popular media in the 1950’s helped crystallize a demand for US exploitation of space.

I suspect that works of imagination also serve another vital role today. Along side of religious and scientific authorities, fiction helps define what we are allowed to believe in, or what concepts are a part of the acceptable norm. In The Forge and the Crucible, Mircea Eliade clearly shows how religion fulfilled this role in ancient societies. Once the shaman or high priest places the new idea into its role in the cosmos, then everyone can use that idea. For example, once the high priest announces that this new harpoon design is a gift from the sea gods to increase our bounty, everyone knows what rites to perform when making or using the harpoon. Everyone knows that the new harpoon is good, and not some demonic trick. You now have permission to think about this new harpoon, to make them, and use them.

Today’s religious leaders do the same thing. You’ll see the impact they have on issues ranging from birth control to the teaching the theory of evolution. Scientific authorities hold the same power in our society. Let’s take one small example. When astronomers first viewed Venus through a telescope, the cloud cover suggested that the planet was quite inviting, and could be teaming with life. Several US and Russian robotic missions later and those same researchers tell us that it is a hot, barren rock. Venus has not changed any, only our perception as provided to us by the scientific establishment.

Fiction, especially popular media also plays this role. Jules Vern is often cited for his visions of the future. It is also likely that some of that future came true because he wrote of it. Authors and screenwriters, illustrators and other workers of the imagination help us see what is possible. Unlike scientists and Popes, their job is to present material in a way that we relate to it. Their goal is to touch our lives somehow. If they create an emotional response in us while presenting some idea, we are more likely to accept it. Possibly, even more likely than if we had to rely solely on faith or trust.

Goddard, Tsiolkovsky, Oberth, the three fathers of modern rocketry all drew inspiration from the works of Jules Vern. All three read Voyage to the Moon, and cited it as one of the reasons why they pursued rocketry. If early rocketry got it’s boost from a single popular novel, then will tomorrow’s greatest engineers be inspired by today’s works coming out of Hollywood, the BBC, or the Discovery Channel? Be careful what you write, someone may actually be reading it…