Space Flight is the New Nuclear Weapon August 21, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Future Development, India, Iran, JAXA, News and politics, Russia, South Korea.add a comment
How can you possibly compare human space flight to nuclear bombs and missiles? The link is not to be found among technologies, but rather in the quest for national prestige.
During the cold war many nations aggressively pursued nuclear development programs. Although they were always clothed in the rhetoric of national defense, nuclear weapons have never been employed for this purpose. You could argue that the US and Russia needed to counter each other’s arsenals, but millions of bullets have been fired, though not one nuclear weapon has been fired in anger since WWII. Additionally, smaller nation had no similar justification.
Iran, North Korea, South Africa, Egypt, India, and Pakistan all created nuclear programs. Were they really needed for national defense? South Africa has gone so far as dismantling their arsenal. That’s a clear sign that it wasn’t required to keep thee nation safe from outside threats. These programs were more about national prestige than about defense.
Even among the superpowers, nuclear weapons development was one way for the two nations to demonstrate their technical superiority. Because the big boys had nukes, any nation that wanted to be viewed as serious contender for regional leadership, they needed nukes too. Iran and Pakistan are both potential leaders for the Islamic world, and hence they needed to demonstrate their capabilities by developing nuclear weapons.
Today, those nukes are becoming less important. There are hints of a new space race. This time any powerful nation can participate. Even private companies can participate. Of course The US and Russia have spaceflight programs, but that’s not new. What is new is the number of other nations announcing a commitment to space flight. In recent years China leaped to the stage with two manned flights. This is a direct challenge to Japan’s quieter program launching astronauts on other nation’s vehicles and contributing serious hardware to the ISS. These two nations also happen to be the biggest powerhouses in Asia, and are flexing their space muscles for their neighbor’s benefit.
South Korea’s Yi So Yeon, who visited the ISS this year is another good example. Although she conducted experiments on orbit, the Korean scientific community was angered by the decision to spend $30 million on her flight. Their complaint is that more money was spent on this one flight than on all other government sponsored scientific projects combined. This is a clear indication that the flight was politically motivated to demonstrate that South Korea is a world player.
Now Iran has announced plans for a manned space program. The national benefits of such a program are murky at best for a nation like Iran. It’s just one more move in the game of international politics and regional control. In the next few months we can expect to hear Pakistan either make a similar announcement, or they will attempt to dismiss Iran’s claims as impossible. As I said before, space flight is the new nuclear program.
The Curse of the Solar Sail August 7, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in JAXA, NASA, Planetary Society, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX.add a comment
As you know SpaceX’s recent Falcon1 launch failed to reach orbit. They tracked down the technical cause to extra thrust produced by their new Merlin 1C engine. After engine cutoff, there’s still some fuel remaining in the regenerative cooling channels. When that seeped into the combustion chamber and mixed with residual oxygen, it pushed the first stage into the separated second stage.
There is of course a more sinister cause behind this mishap…The Curse of the Solar Sail.
Some of you may be familiar with the “Mars Gremlin.” Only about 50% of all spacecraft destined for the red planet are successful. We are getting better at dropping landers and rovers on the planet, but it’s still extremely difficult and risky. You may not be aware of it, but there is a similar curse afflicting attempts to put a solar sail into orbit. And yes, The Falcon 1 was carrying NanoSail-D, a solar sail technology demonstrator from NASA.
In 2005, the Planetary Society attempted to launch Cosmos1, another solar sail demonstrator. Unfortunately, the launcher was a bargain basement, submarine launched Volna rocket. The Russian operators hoped to demonstrate that the Volna was ready to launch commercial payloads. Although the booster reached orbital altitude, the payload failed to separate, the spacecraft was lost.
In 2006, JAXA launched a solar sail vehicle piggybacked to ASTRO-F’s M-V booster. While it successfully reached orbit, it failed to deploy its solar sails.
This makes NanoSail-D our third attempt, and our third failure of a solar sail spacecraft. So from where I’m sitting, the only mistake SpaceX made was agreeing to launch a solar sail. Solar sails have great potential to support long duration robotic missions, but before that happens, we’ll have to defeat the Curse of the Solar Sail.
Space Yoga April 27, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Future Development, India, NASA, Russia.3 comments
Astronauts and Cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station spend two hours a day exercising to keep bone and muscle loss to a minimum. Bones become brittle and muscles waste away in microgravity without constant work. Current exercise regimes include a bicycle ergometer (stationary bicycle), a treadmill for running, and the Resistive Exercise Device that simulates weight lifting with elastic bands. That’s not a whole lot of options. How could we increase the variety with increasing the equipment?
I would like to suggest we add yoga to the list of exercise regimes. When you think of yoga, you probably think of guys turning themselves into pretzels, but the art is really good at building a core of strength as well as flexibility.
Most yoga positions rely on gravity, but not all do. For example there is a version of uttanasana, forward bend, where you lock your fingers around your big toes before straightening your legs. No gravity needed there to stretch the back, and put stress on the leg joints and muscles. Other positions could be similarly modified to make them more effective in micro, or lunar gravity. A trained yoga instructor with a strong foundation in physiology should also be able to develop sequences to help alleviate back pain, which is a common orbital complaint.
I did a little research, looking for any references to yoga in space, or NASA studies, but there’s almost no information out there. In 1984 Squadron Leader Rakesh Sharma of India spent a little over a week on Russia’s Salyut 7. One of his experiments was using yoga to combat motion sickness. If anyone knows the results of his experiments, I’d love to hear about it.
Year in Review April 27, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Armadillo Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, ESA, JAXA, NASA, Orbital SCiences, Rocketplane Kistler, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX.add a comment
Yes, it’s been twelve months since my last post. So, I thought I’d give a quick run down of spaceflight activities for the past year. It’s been a busy one with many exciting developments.
Let’s start with the ISS’s growth spurt. The installation of ESA’s Columbus module, and JAXA’s Kibo Pressurized Logistics Module, and NASA’s Node 2 Harmony greatly expanded that habitable volume of the orbital outpost. It also means that. ESA and JAXA activated their own control rooms to support their modules. ESA also wins bonus points for finally getting Jules Vern, their first ATV cargo ship off the ground last month. After several rendezvous tests, the unmanned vehicle automatically docked to a Russian port. Just the other day, Jules Vern fired two of its four engines to boost the Space Station’s orbit.
Canada also has new hardware on orbit. Dexter, a two-armed extension for the Canada Arm II, accompanied the Kibo module on STS-123. It’s designed to complete some of the maintenance and repair tasks usually handle by space walking astronauts. Considering how dangerous those activities are, Dexter is a welcome contribution to this great experiment in space.
The ISS also played host to numerous international astronauts. Germany’s Hans Schlegel helped install ESA’s Columbus module on STS-122. Frances’s Leopold Eyharts also rode up on STS-122 and remained on orbit for a month to configure Columbus before returning on STS-123. Japan’s Takao Doi flew aboard STS-123 to deliver and install the Kibo PLM. South Korea also sent its first astronaut into space. Engineer Yi So Yeon joined Russia’s most recent Soyuz taxi flight. She spent ten days on orbit, and introduced the crew to some Korean foods including spicy kimchi, and fermented soybean paste. Both of which I can personally confirm are delicious, as I currently reside just north of Seoul. Soon the ISS may boast both an international cuisine as well as an international crew.
In other news, NASA’s project Orion is proceeding. The mockup capsule for the launch abort test is complete. Orbital Sciences is building the abort tower that will cap the module. Launch pad modifications are under way for the Ares I-X test. The dummy upper stage for the test is also complete. NASA also conducted numerous airbag tests to see if the vehicle can safely perform a landing on dry ground. They performed drop tests for the larger parachutes needed for the extended five segment solid booster. It’s great to see real hardware under construction and in tests.
The private sector hasn’t been sitting on its laurels either. Bigelow Aerospace successfully launched Genesis II, and is pushing forward with plans for full-scale inflatable orbital modules.
Armadillo Aerospace again failed to capture the Lunar Lander Challenge at the XPrize Cup. However, they were the only team to field a vehicle, and their repeat attempts were the highlight of the Cup. They also posses an experimental launch permit which has allowed them to log a great deal of low altitude flight time beyond tethered flights. They also have a modular sub-orbital design, which looks like it could be a commercial success.
SpaceX still hasn’t orbited any hardware, but progress continues on the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9. Flights of both are still scheduled for this year, and the company has plenty of paying customers lined up. They’ve improved their Merlin engine with a regeneratively cooled version that increases the available thrust, and their engine test stand has been keeping their neighbors on their toes. SpaceX is still on track for the COTS program, and has past several critical reviews and funding milestones. NASA also awarded them an indefinite quantity, indefinite time contract for launch services to be specified as needed.
Scaled Composites/ The Spaceship Company has had the roughest year. They had an engine blow up on a test stand. The accident resulted in two deaths, and has slowed down development work on SpaceShip II. Burt Rutan is in it for the long haul, and is an experienced aircraft designer. They will investigate the causes of the accident, and prevent it from occurring again. This will not end the SpaceShip II program. One interesting idea to come out of Virgin Galactic is that this model could be used for point to point supersonic flights as well as space tourism.
One last note: NASA finally managed to get rid of Rocket Plane Kistler and re-award their portion of the COTS contract to Orbital Sciences. RPK failed to make required funding deadlines. Few space insiders really believed RPK had the muscle to launch any hardware into space. Their K-1 vehicle has been “90% complete” for the past five years, and they haven’t done anything in that time but burn money. Orbital Sciences was a new aerospace startup during the Reagan administration. They still think like a small, young organization, but they have a successful development track record including three launch vehicles.
What is Bigelow Up To? February 14, 2007
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Bigelow Aerospace, Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, NASA, Rocketplane Kistler, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX.add a comment
In April, Robert Bigelow will unveil long secret business plans at the National Space Symposium. Industry watchers are abuzz with speculation at to what he plans to reveal. Back in November, Bigelow announced that Genesis II, scheduled for launch by April 1, will be the last opportunity to fly personal effects on a test flight. Does this mean that Genesis II will be Bigelow’s final sub-scale demonstrator? Was Genesis I so successful that he’s ready to proceed with his first full-sized Nautilus module?
Last year, Bigelow also entered into negotiations with Lockheed-Martin to explore the feasibility of man-rating the Atlas 5 launch vehicle. Will Bigelow announce an agreement to carry through with the project? Will Lockheed resurrect one of their plans for a space capsule to ride atop the Atlas and taxi people to waiting Bigelow habitation modules?
Energiya, announced plans last year for a commercial circumlunar flight. Drawings that used to be on the Bigelow web site depict Russian Soyuz docked to a Bigelow inflatable habitat. Has Bigelow entered into an agreement with Energiya to provide living space for their flight around the Moon?
NASA’s Orion capsule is designed to be one component of a flexible modular system. For any given mission additional components are added like an earth departure rocket stage, additional living space, and life support. There has been recent talk in the space community about the feasibility of Orion missions to NEO’s, Near Earth Objects. Missions to these asteroids would need additional habitation space, just like that provided by a Bigelow inflatable module. Is NASA requesting just such a system?
Speculating about the future of Bigelow Aerospace is fun because there are so many possibilities. While other aerospace startups are slogging through the process of building and testing rocket boosters, Bigelow has jumped ahead to design systems that will take advantage of these boosters. His inflatable modules will dramatically increase the capabilities of anyone who can launch people into orbit. Whether it’s SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocketplane Kistler, Energiya, or NASA, he’s providing the tools to expand their missions, and turn cramped space capsules into full-fledged spacecraft.
This Year in Space January 1, 2007
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Armadillo Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, ESA, India, JAXA, NASA, Orbital SCiences, Rocketplane Kistler, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX, UP Aerospace.add a comment
2006 was a pretty good year in space. The international launch community averaged over one orbital launch per week. U.S. and Russian providers carried out the bulk of the operations but the E.U., Japan, Israel and China also had successes under their belts. With four failed launch attempts, the failure rate was a mere 6%, which is considerably better than the historical average of 10%.
Manned spaceflight had a banner year. The International Space Station returned to a three-person crew and played host to astronauts and cosmonauts from the U.S., Russia, Germany, Sweden, and Japan. Although U.S. citizens, Astronauts born in Australia and England also visited the ISS and truly put the “International” in the International Space Station. Anousheh Ansari, perhaps the most famous space tourist to date, traveled to the station on one of two Soyuz flights this year. Her blog carried many dreamers with her on the ten-day journey.
NASA also managed to conduct two ISS construction flights. Space walkers and the robotic arm installed the P4 solar arrays, the P5 spacer truss, and rewired the electrical system to its permanent configuration. For the first time several years, the ISS actually looks different from the outside. Not only that, the increased power supplied by the new photovoltaic cells sets the stage for the installation of Japanese and European modules over the course of the next two years.
The emerging aerospace companies had more of a mixed year. SpaceX attempted to launch a partly reusable Falcon 1 at the start of the year, but suffered a major engine failure. Even with the loss of the vehicle, NASA still awarded them $278 million to develop cargo delivery and possibly human taxi services to the ISS. Rocketplane-Kistler won the other COTS development contract for $207 million to develop the same services.
UP Aerospace and Armadillo Aerospace both struggled with suborbital flights. UP Aerospace lost their launcher the New Mexico’s innaugerral spaceport flight, when it veered off course and disappeared into the White Sands Missile Range. It took them over a week to recover the broken hardware so they could analyze the failure.
Armadillo conducted several spectacular flights at the X Prize Cup in October. In an attempt to secure the Lunar Lander Challenge, a golf cart sized LH/LOX rocket vehicle named Pixel had to traverse 100 feet, land, and then return to its launch pad. The team made three tries at the event, and accomplished the first half of the challenge, but suffered equipment malfunctions and other difficulties at the landing site. If their vehicle had been a bit more robust, they certainly would have succeeded.
Bigelow Aerospace impressed most space watchers with the launch of their first test of an inflatable orbital habitat. The subscale vehicle was launched on a Russian Dnepr rocket and surpassed expectations. The inflation was flawless, and the mini-space station established contact with Beigelow’s ground station. The on-board thrusters stabilized the initial tumbling, and the solar cells fed power to the systems. Video cameras mounted inside and outside let the world witness this privately funded success.
In the next installment we’ll take a look at the accomplishments of our unmanned explorers over 2006.
Future Space Leadership November 16, 2006
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in ESA, Future Development, India, JAXA, NASA, Russia, Space Startups.add a comment
A poster to a message board I regularly read asked what nation is likely to be the leader in space twenty five to fifty years from now. It was such an interesting question that I couldn’t keep my reply short enough for the message board. So I gave an abridged reply and posted the full version here.
Which Country will be the dominant Space Power in the year 2025-2049?
The Chinese have a long way to go, but at the rate their economy is expanding, they could be formidable. Anyone who watches international politics/economics views China as the next 500 lb gorilla. Of course China also has a number of handicaps and could stumble if faced with significant social change. Rapid expansion is always unstable, and could lead to social unrest or collapse as easily as it could lead to international dominance.
Russia has as much experience, if not more than the US. Today, they are successfully selling both satellite launch and manned spaceflight services around the world. They filmed commercials on Mir and are continuing that tradition on the ISS with a golf equipment commercial to be filmed during an upcoming EVA. The first space tourists flew aboard the Soyuz, and no other operator is flying yet. They are certainly the most commercial of the national programs. Unfortunately, Russia is still in financially troubled waters. They just can’t seem to gather the funding necessary to develop their next generation Kliper spacecraft. They are looking to Japan and the EU to help fund the project, but money is not easily forthcoming.
I’d love to see the EU do more, but their structure makes it difficult for them to fund any truly large projects. Because of the competing national interests within the organization, it is difficult to make any hard decision and stick to it. When the do build hardware, the work must be spread out among the participating nations, complicating the process. They are modifying one of their launch complexes to handle the Russian Soyuz/Proton, but this will not be enough to get them into the lead.
Japan and India both have interesting plans, but they are too far behind, and won’t commit the resources needed to catch up.
The US is the only nation with both the financial resources and the operational experience to be the near-term leader in space. NASA’s development plans are fairly flat without a significant increase in funding, and someone else like China could overtake them. NASA is plagued by chronic budget battles in Congress, and it’s future is always in doubt. If you look at the history of the organization, its value has been questioned from the very beginning.
So what’s the point of all of this long-winded analysis? I believe that in the next fifty years, private companies may actually take the lead in spaceflight. Not a single nation, but companies located in the US, Russia, and Canada. Multinational corporations will also make use of construction costs in one nation and favorable launch licensing in another. Private launch complexes are in the planning stages or under construction in Saudi Arabia, Australia, the US, and South East Asia. The only question is what space-based activities will generate revenue. Asteroid mining, and tourism are always cited, but their future is questionable until someone demonstrates the capability. That may be in the next five years, or not for more than two dozen more. The only business that is guaranteed to make money today is government contracts for ISS resupply and crew taxi services. Others may well evolve, but the COTS program is a good example of where the foreseeable future of private spaceflight can turn a profit, and in turn lead the international community.
Russian Space October 1, 2006
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Russia, Space Adventures, Space Startups.add a comment
Back when the Russian space agency joined the ISS program, they were forced to abandon plans for Mir 2, a follow on to their highly successful space station. Now those plans may be revived. Since NASA’s plans for a return to the Moon don’t call for full international partnerships, Russia is planning it’s own post-ISS course.
Between 2015 and 2025 they plan to launch a new space station into a highly inclined orbit in order to over fly all Russian territory. They also intend to provide more facilities for commercial materials testing. Considering their prior record of selling cosmonaut time on Mir, this is easy to believe.
Russia would also like to replace the Soyuz with Kliper, if they can find substantial funding for it. They’ve been courting ESA (Europe) and JAXA (Japan) and even private companies, but have yet to find the substantive commitment they need. They may still make an agreement with ESA as ESA has already committed to converting one of their Arian5 V launch towers to launch Soyuz rockets.
Russia has more experience in space than any other nation. There is no doubt that they have the technical and operation experience to fulfill these plans. It is only a question of money. Fortunately they’ve been selling services to interested parties for a long time. Space Adventures Inc. has several irons in the fire including circumlunar flights in a modified Soyuz. With the expansion of space tourism and related commercial activities, it may be the Russian space program that benefits the most
