Space Flight is the New Nuclear Weapon August 21, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Future Development, India, Iran, JAXA, News and politics, Russia, South Korea.add a comment
How can you possibly compare human space flight to nuclear bombs and missiles? The link is not to be found among technologies, but rather in the quest for national prestige.
During the cold war many nations aggressively pursued nuclear development programs. Although they were always clothed in the rhetoric of national defense, nuclear weapons have never been employed for this purpose. You could argue that the US and Russia needed to counter each other’s arsenals, but millions of bullets have been fired, though not one nuclear weapon has been fired in anger since WWII. Additionally, smaller nation had no similar justification.
Iran, North Korea, South Africa, Egypt, India, and Pakistan all created nuclear programs. Were they really needed for national defense? South Africa has gone so far as dismantling their arsenal. That’s a clear sign that it wasn’t required to keep thee nation safe from outside threats. These programs were more about national prestige than about defense.
Even among the superpowers, nuclear weapons development was one way for the two nations to demonstrate their technical superiority. Because the big boys had nukes, any nation that wanted to be viewed as serious contender for regional leadership, they needed nukes too. Iran and Pakistan are both potential leaders for the Islamic world, and hence they needed to demonstrate their capabilities by developing nuclear weapons.
Today, those nukes are becoming less important. There are hints of a new space race. This time any powerful nation can participate. Even private companies can participate. Of course The US and Russia have spaceflight programs, but that’s not new. What is new is the number of other nations announcing a commitment to space flight. In recent years China leaped to the stage with two manned flights. This is a direct challenge to Japan’s quieter program launching astronauts on other nation’s vehicles and contributing serious hardware to the ISS. These two nations also happen to be the biggest powerhouses in Asia, and are flexing their space muscles for their neighbor’s benefit.
South Korea’s Yi So Yeon, who visited the ISS this year is another good example. Although she conducted experiments on orbit, the Korean scientific community was angered by the decision to spend $30 million on her flight. Their complaint is that more money was spent on this one flight than on all other government sponsored scientific projects combined. This is a clear indication that the flight was politically motivated to demonstrate that South Korea is a world player.
Now Iran has announced plans for a manned space program. The national benefits of such a program are murky at best for a nation like Iran. It’s just one more move in the game of international politics and regional control. In the next few months we can expect to hear Pakistan either make a similar announcement, or they will attempt to dismiss Iran’s claims as impossible. As I said before, space flight is the new nuclear program.
The Curse of the Solar Sail August 7, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in JAXA, NASA, Planetary Society, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX.add a comment
As you know SpaceX’s recent Falcon1 launch failed to reach orbit. They tracked down the technical cause to extra thrust produced by their new Merlin 1C engine. After engine cutoff, there’s still some fuel remaining in the regenerative cooling channels. When that seeped into the combustion chamber and mixed with residual oxygen, it pushed the first stage into the separated second stage.
There is of course a more sinister cause behind this mishap…The Curse of the Solar Sail.
Some of you may be familiar with the “Mars Gremlin.” Only about 50% of all spacecraft destined for the red planet are successful. We are getting better at dropping landers and rovers on the planet, but it’s still extremely difficult and risky. You may not be aware of it, but there is a similar curse afflicting attempts to put a solar sail into orbit. And yes, The Falcon 1 was carrying NanoSail-D, a solar sail technology demonstrator from NASA.
In 2005, the Planetary Society attempted to launch Cosmos1, another solar sail demonstrator. Unfortunately, the launcher was a bargain basement, submarine launched Volna rocket. The Russian operators hoped to demonstrate that the Volna was ready to launch commercial payloads. Although the booster reached orbital altitude, the payload failed to separate, the spacecraft was lost.
In 2006, JAXA launched a solar sail vehicle piggybacked to ASTRO-F’s M-V booster. While it successfully reached orbit, it failed to deploy its solar sails.
This makes NanoSail-D our third attempt, and our third failure of a solar sail spacecraft. So from where I’m sitting, the only mistake SpaceX made was agreeing to launch a solar sail. Solar sails have great potential to support long duration robotic missions, but before that happens, we’ll have to defeat the Curse of the Solar Sail.
Year in Review April 27, 2008
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Armadillo Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, ESA, JAXA, NASA, Orbital SCiences, Rocketplane Kistler, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX.add a comment
Yes, it’s been twelve months since my last post. So, I thought I’d give a quick run down of spaceflight activities for the past year. It’s been a busy one with many exciting developments.
Let’s start with the ISS’s growth spurt. The installation of ESA’s Columbus module, and JAXA’s Kibo Pressurized Logistics Module, and NASA’s Node 2 Harmony greatly expanded that habitable volume of the orbital outpost. It also means that. ESA and JAXA activated their own control rooms to support their modules. ESA also wins bonus points for finally getting Jules Vern, their first ATV cargo ship off the ground last month. After several rendezvous tests, the unmanned vehicle automatically docked to a Russian port. Just the other day, Jules Vern fired two of its four engines to boost the Space Station’s orbit.
Canada also has new hardware on orbit. Dexter, a two-armed extension for the Canada Arm II, accompanied the Kibo module on STS-123. It’s designed to complete some of the maintenance and repair tasks usually handle by space walking astronauts. Considering how dangerous those activities are, Dexter is a welcome contribution to this great experiment in space.
The ISS also played host to numerous international astronauts. Germany’s Hans Schlegel helped install ESA’s Columbus module on STS-122. Frances’s Leopold Eyharts also rode up on STS-122 and remained on orbit for a month to configure Columbus before returning on STS-123. Japan’s Takao Doi flew aboard STS-123 to deliver and install the Kibo PLM. South Korea also sent its first astronaut into space. Engineer Yi So Yeon joined Russia’s most recent Soyuz taxi flight. She spent ten days on orbit, and introduced the crew to some Korean foods including spicy kimchi, and fermented soybean paste. Both of which I can personally confirm are delicious, as I currently reside just north of Seoul. Soon the ISS may boast both an international cuisine as well as an international crew.
In other news, NASA’s project Orion is proceeding. The mockup capsule for the launch abort test is complete. Orbital Sciences is building the abort tower that will cap the module. Launch pad modifications are under way for the Ares I-X test. The dummy upper stage for the test is also complete. NASA also conducted numerous airbag tests to see if the vehicle can safely perform a landing on dry ground. They performed drop tests for the larger parachutes needed for the extended five segment solid booster. It’s great to see real hardware under construction and in tests.
The private sector hasn’t been sitting on its laurels either. Bigelow Aerospace successfully launched Genesis II, and is pushing forward with plans for full-scale inflatable orbital modules.
Armadillo Aerospace again failed to capture the Lunar Lander Challenge at the XPrize Cup. However, they were the only team to field a vehicle, and their repeat attempts were the highlight of the Cup. They also posses an experimental launch permit which has allowed them to log a great deal of low altitude flight time beyond tethered flights. They also have a modular sub-orbital design, which looks like it could be a commercial success.
SpaceX still hasn’t orbited any hardware, but progress continues on the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9. Flights of both are still scheduled for this year, and the company has plenty of paying customers lined up. They’ve improved their Merlin engine with a regeneratively cooled version that increases the available thrust, and their engine test stand has been keeping their neighbors on their toes. SpaceX is still on track for the COTS program, and has past several critical reviews and funding milestones. NASA also awarded them an indefinite quantity, indefinite time contract for launch services to be specified as needed.
Scaled Composites/ The Spaceship Company has had the roughest year. They had an engine blow up on a test stand. The accident resulted in two deaths, and has slowed down development work on SpaceShip II. Burt Rutan is in it for the long haul, and is an experienced aircraft designer. They will investigate the causes of the accident, and prevent it from occurring again. This will not end the SpaceShip II program. One interesting idea to come out of Virgin Galactic is that this model could be used for point to point supersonic flights as well as space tourism.
One last note: NASA finally managed to get rid of Rocket Plane Kistler and re-award their portion of the COTS contract to Orbital Sciences. RPK failed to make required funding deadlines. Few space insiders really believed RPK had the muscle to launch any hardware into space. Their K-1 vehicle has been “90% complete” for the past five years, and they haven’t done anything in that time but burn money. Orbital Sciences was a new aerospace startup during the Reagan administration. They still think like a small, young organization, but they have a successful development track record including three launch vehicles.
Shuttle Delayed Until Mid-April February 28, 2007
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in ESA, JAXA, NASA, News and politics.add a comment
Yesterday, the Space Shuttle Atlantis found itself at the center of a severe hailstorm. The spacecraft was slated for mission STS-117, an ISS construction flight, on March 15. During the 2-mile wide storm, the external tank and left wing suffered over 7,000 impacts from golf ball sized hailstones. Ground crews will roll the Shuttle back to the Vehicle Assembly building this weekend and conduct a more thorough inspection of the damaged areas. In 1999, the last time the external tank suffered hail damage, it took four days to repair the many small dings in the insulation.
Unfortunately, even a brief delay will force mission STS-117 to miss their March launch window. The Shuttle Atlantis and her crew will now have to wait until the next Soyuz flight delivers ISS Expedition 15 and departs the station. Since flight rules preclude having both vehicles flying at the same time, the Shuttle flight will launch no earlier than the April 20th. These delays are expected to have a small, but noticeable impact on the three other Shuttle flights scheduled for this year.
The main feature of mission STS-117 is the installation of the S-3/4 solar arrays. At the end of the flight, the ISS will once more be in a symmetrical configuration, and have enough electrical generating capacity to support the Japanese and European laboratory modules. Although the extra living space is not available yet, the new solar-voltaic wings will also provide enough power to run life support equipment for three additional crewmen. If JAXA and ESA’s automated cargo delivery vehicles work as advertised, the ISS may see a crew of six in the near future.
This Year in Space January 1, 2007
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in Armadillo Aerospace, Bigelow Aerospace, ESA, India, JAXA, NASA, Orbital SCiences, Rocketplane Kistler, Russia, Space Startups, SpaceX, UP Aerospace.add a comment
2006 was a pretty good year in space. The international launch community averaged over one orbital launch per week. U.S. and Russian providers carried out the bulk of the operations but the E.U., Japan, Israel and China also had successes under their belts. With four failed launch attempts, the failure rate was a mere 6%, which is considerably better than the historical average of 10%.
Manned spaceflight had a banner year. The International Space Station returned to a three-person crew and played host to astronauts and cosmonauts from the U.S., Russia, Germany, Sweden, and Japan. Although U.S. citizens, Astronauts born in Australia and England also visited the ISS and truly put the “International” in the International Space Station. Anousheh Ansari, perhaps the most famous space tourist to date, traveled to the station on one of two Soyuz flights this year. Her blog carried many dreamers with her on the ten-day journey.
NASA also managed to conduct two ISS construction flights. Space walkers and the robotic arm installed the P4 solar arrays, the P5 spacer truss, and rewired the electrical system to its permanent configuration. For the first time several years, the ISS actually looks different from the outside. Not only that, the increased power supplied by the new photovoltaic cells sets the stage for the installation of Japanese and European modules over the course of the next two years.
The emerging aerospace companies had more of a mixed year. SpaceX attempted to launch a partly reusable Falcon 1 at the start of the year, but suffered a major engine failure. Even with the loss of the vehicle, NASA still awarded them $278 million to develop cargo delivery and possibly human taxi services to the ISS. Rocketplane-Kistler won the other COTS development contract for $207 million to develop the same services.
UP Aerospace and Armadillo Aerospace both struggled with suborbital flights. UP Aerospace lost their launcher the New Mexico’s innaugerral spaceport flight, when it veered off course and disappeared into the White Sands Missile Range. It took them over a week to recover the broken hardware so they could analyze the failure.
Armadillo conducted several spectacular flights at the X Prize Cup in October. In an attempt to secure the Lunar Lander Challenge, a golf cart sized LH/LOX rocket vehicle named Pixel had to traverse 100 feet, land, and then return to its launch pad. The team made three tries at the event, and accomplished the first half of the challenge, but suffered equipment malfunctions and other difficulties at the landing site. If their vehicle had been a bit more robust, they certainly would have succeeded.
Bigelow Aerospace impressed most space watchers with the launch of their first test of an inflatable orbital habitat. The subscale vehicle was launched on a Russian Dnepr rocket and surpassed expectations. The inflation was flawless, and the mini-space station established contact with Beigelow’s ground station. The on-board thrusters stabilized the initial tumbling, and the solar cells fed power to the systems. Video cameras mounted inside and outside let the world witness this privately funded success.
In the next installment we’ll take a look at the accomplishments of our unmanned explorers over 2006.
Future Space Leadership November 16, 2006
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in ESA, Future Development, India, JAXA, NASA, Russia, Space Startups.add a comment
A poster to a message board I regularly read asked what nation is likely to be the leader in space twenty five to fifty years from now. It was such an interesting question that I couldn’t keep my reply short enough for the message board. So I gave an abridged reply and posted the full version here.
Which Country will be the dominant Space Power in the year 2025-2049?
The Chinese have a long way to go, but at the rate their economy is expanding, they could be formidable. Anyone who watches international politics/economics views China as the next 500 lb gorilla. Of course China also has a number of handicaps and could stumble if faced with significant social change. Rapid expansion is always unstable, and could lead to social unrest or collapse as easily as it could lead to international dominance.
Russia has as much experience, if not more than the US. Today, they are successfully selling both satellite launch and manned spaceflight services around the world. They filmed commercials on Mir and are continuing that tradition on the ISS with a golf equipment commercial to be filmed during an upcoming EVA. The first space tourists flew aboard the Soyuz, and no other operator is flying yet. They are certainly the most commercial of the national programs. Unfortunately, Russia is still in financially troubled waters. They just can’t seem to gather the funding necessary to develop their next generation Kliper spacecraft. They are looking to Japan and the EU to help fund the project, but money is not easily forthcoming.
I’d love to see the EU do more, but their structure makes it difficult for them to fund any truly large projects. Because of the competing national interests within the organization, it is difficult to make any hard decision and stick to it. When the do build hardware, the work must be spread out among the participating nations, complicating the process. They are modifying one of their launch complexes to handle the Russian Soyuz/Proton, but this will not be enough to get them into the lead.
Japan and India both have interesting plans, but they are too far behind, and won’t commit the resources needed to catch up.
The US is the only nation with both the financial resources and the operational experience to be the near-term leader in space. NASA’s development plans are fairly flat without a significant increase in funding, and someone else like China could overtake them. NASA is plagued by chronic budget battles in Congress, and it’s future is always in doubt. If you look at the history of the organization, its value has been questioned from the very beginning.
So what’s the point of all of this long-winded analysis? I believe that in the next fifty years, private companies may actually take the lead in spaceflight. Not a single nation, but companies located in the US, Russia, and Canada. Multinational corporations will also make use of construction costs in one nation and favorable launch licensing in another. Private launch complexes are in the planning stages or under construction in Saudi Arabia, Australia, the US, and South East Asia. The only question is what space-based activities will generate revenue. Asteroid mining, and tourism are always cited, but their future is questionable until someone demonstrates the capability. That may be in the next five years, or not for more than two dozen more. The only business that is guaranteed to make money today is government contracts for ISS resupply and crew taxi services. Others may well evolve, but the COTS program is a good example of where the foreseeable future of private spaceflight can turn a profit, and in turn lead the international community.
Japanese Space Enthusiasm October 18, 2006
Posted by Brian Pfeifer in JAXA, NASA.10 comments
The Japanese have an enduring fascination with high technology, and there is no better symbol of high technology than space flight. About a half dozen JAXA astronauts have flown aboard the Space Shuttle in the last twenty years. They have constructed three major components for the ISS, two Kibo modules and the cupola. Last year, Cup-O-Noodles, even broadcast a commercial they had shot on the ISS.
This may not sound like a lot compared to the US and Russian space programs, but it’s large enough to rival ESA’s program. And ESA combines the whole European Union, not just one island nation. There’s no denying the enthusiasm the Japanese bring to the process.
Last July, when Soichi Noguchi flew aboard STS-114, he became an instant superstar. I was living in Sendai, Japan at the time, saw and plenty of evidence. He was on the TV and the radio. While walking through the local station for the bullet train, I saw billboards blazoned with images of Noguchi and the Space Shuttle. They were not advertising any new product; rather they were in praise of JAXA and NASA’s joint mission. My Japanese friends wanted to talk to me about the flight and what JAXA’s future plans are.
Noguchi was no mere passenger either. He conducted several construction space walks with Steve Robinson. More amusingly, he also experimented with proposed Japanese space foods, including ramen noodles. Within weeks of his return, new books started appearing in bookstores. Even when I left the country a year later, his biographies and photo albums from the flight were still strong sellers.
NASA’s newly updated ISS assembly schedule pushes the launch of the Japanese modules back to December 2007, and January 2008. With the repeated slips in the construction schedule, JAXA and ESA have expressed concerns over the installation of their modules. This is nothing new. The topic first came up when President Clinton invited the Russians to participate in the project. The final configuration of the ISS has been plastic since the days of its inception. The frustrating thing is that today, all of the modules have been built, and most are already sitting at KSC in Florida. They only await a delivery van to drop them off at the station.
If Noguchi was a superstar after just two weeks in space, can you imagine what the impact in Japan will be when they have a long-term crewmember aboard the ISS? It will be a proud day when he first enters JAXA’s modules. If it is anything like similar occasions held on earth, it will be accompanies by profuse bowing and many long speeches.
